Average arable land values in England have plateaued after a sustained period of strong growth, but the market outlook remains positive, according to the latest analysis.

Strutt & Parker’s Farmland Database, which records the sale of all farms estates and blocks of publicly marketed land in England over 100 acres in size, also forecasts a period of stabilisation in values.

It shows the average price of arable land sold so far during 2023 is £10,900/acre. This is slightly lower than the £11,100/acre reported for H1 2023 but the same as the 2022 average, which itself was 15 per cent higher than in 2021.

“Despite rising interest rates and a squeeze on farm profitability, the farmland market remains extremely resilient,” said Matthew Sudlow, the firm's head of estates and farm agency. “Although it appears the growth in values has slowed in some locations, this is only because there have been fewer sales at £12,000/acre or more. Our analysis shows that 60 per cent of the arable land traded in England this year has still sold for more than £10,000/acre, compared to 33 per cent in 2021, highlighting the continued strength of the market.”

Mr Sudlow says the feeling among agents is that demand is more variable than it was a year ago, but prime farms in popular areas of the country continue to sell well. Buyers include farmers with rollover money to spend, private individuals, the investment sector and green investors.

“We’re also seeing some significant purchases from a handful of overseas buyers, who like the fact it is easier to buy at scale in the UK than in some other European countries. The UK’s appeal is being enhanced by our farming industry’s enthusiasm for adopting regenerative farming techniques.”

Traditional farmer buyers have accounted for about 40 per cent of transactions so far in 2023. Historically, this figure tends to be 50 to 60 per cent.

Supply did rise in Q3, taking the total amount brought to the open market in England during the first nine months of the year to 65,600 acres, which is nine per cent above the five-year average. There also continues to be plenty of activity on the private market, but overall supply remains constrained in historical terms.

Mr Sudlow said the outlook for the coming year remains positive, although greater polarisation in values is a possibility.

“With demand becoming more variable, location is once again becoming an increasingly important factor in determining the price. The expectation is that the market is set to remain buoyant in the perennially popular areas of the country, such as the Cotswolds and counties close to London, and in other parts of the country where there are existing landowners looking to upsize. However, farms in traditionally less popular regions focused on productive farming may struggle to achieve the same level of interest as they would have seen last year.”

Levels of supply remain a talking point in the industry with questions being asked about whether there could be a noticeable rise in the volume of land available, if farmers decide to sell up in the face of a difficult harvest, high input costs and falling Basic Payment receipts. “While this is clearly a possibility, there is little hard evidence that it is happening yet,” said Mr Sudlow.

Overall, the sentiment is that farmland remains a solid investment prospect, with a proven track record of capital growth, for a range of buyers.

“The value of arable farmland has risen by 29 per cent over the past ten years and by 351 per cent over the past 20 years. Since 2000, arable farmland has outperformed the commercial and residential property sectors, and equities, delivering an annualised return of 7.8 per cent. The return from gold (8.9 per cent per year over 20 years) has been slightly higher, although gold started from a very low base in 2000. While it does feel as if the bull run in the farmland market might be over for now, our forecast is that we are in a period of stabilisation, rather than facing any significant decline in values.”